Oscar season chaos: How omicron has created the most 'confusing' awards season yet

You thought last year's Oscars were weird? Omicron would like to have a word. 

Like most aspects of our lives, the latest COVID-19 variant has thrown awards season into relative chaos. As the virus surges across the country – with the U.S. averaging roughly 550,000 new cases a day – this week's Critics Choice, National Board of Review and New York Film Critics Circle awards were all forced to postpone their in-person events, with no rescheduled dates yet announced. This month's Palm Springs Film Festival in California – which was set to fete best actress Oscar hopefuls including Kristen Stewart, Nicole Kidman and Lady Gaga – has canceled its 2022 edition.

And the normally star-studded Golden Globes will require vaccination boosters and proof of negative tests for the select members attending its nontelevised ceremony on Sunday. The Globes, still mired in controversy over the ethical conflicts and lack of diversity within the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, were dropped by NBC and have essentially been boycotted by talent and studios, most of whom didn't acknowledge this year's nominations. 

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The suddenly empty calendar is in stark contrast to even last January, when most awards shows had already pivoted to hybrid or virtual ceremonies. (The Grammys, originally slated for Jan. 31, have been postponed indefinitely.) 

"It's probably more confusing right now than it was the entirety of last year," says Clayton Davis, Variety's film awards editor. "We all knew this pandemic was going to last a while, so we mentally and financially and physically prepared for Zoom events. Now that we've thought we were going to be in person – because that's what we were doing for the last couple months – we're a bit more in this unknown of, 'Are we about to shut down?' We're all just hoping this is a January thing and not an entire season." 

In response to omicron, many studios have recalibrated their awards campaigns by hosting online screenings and Q&As for voters, which became the norm in 2020 at the pandemic's outset. 

"Awards strategists and publicists have had two years to adjust and create buzz how they can," says Nathaniel Rogers, editor and owner of movie site The Film Experience. "Still, there's nothing as emotionally impactful for potential voters (as) being in the room and mingling with the filmmakers and other voters at receptions. You have to ask yourself if the voters feel any urgency to open up their laptops to log into a virtual Q&A. And what happens to 'word of mouth' when nobody is actually talking to each other?" 

Of this season's awards shows, Davis feels "the best" about the Oscars sticking to its March 27 ceremony, given that omicron cases are expected to peak this month. But Oscar nominations voting gets underway in just three weeks, meaning that some on-the-bubble contenders won't get to dazzle on red carpets, deliver winning speeches or rub elbows with academy members at events – all crucial at this stage in the race. 

Kathryn Hunter ("The Tragedy of Macbeth"), Alana Haim ("Licorice Pizza") and Jennifer Hudson ("Respect"), for example, won't get the boost of being honored at awards galas in New York and Palm Springs this month. 

"For Jennifer Hudson, it really hurts her because Palm Springs is full of Oscar voters, so her missing out on that is just a loss to her campaign," Davis says. Best actress and especially best supporting actress are two of the "most competitive this year, so any edge is going to help. When the race is that tight, (visibility) makes a difference."

It also doesn't help that the pandemic has largely obliterated the box office for any movie not starring Marvel superheroes: Pricey dramas including "King Richard" (which has earned $14.7 million to date), "West Side Story" ($30 million) and "Nightmare Alley" ($7.7 million) all underperformed this holiday season, pointing to the reluctance of older audiences to return to theaters. 

"The moviegoing public are going to see big blockbusters right now – they're not going to see these awards contenders," says Matt Neglia, founder of awards site Next Best Picture. "So every little bit is hurting, because they haven't gotten the exposure to general audiences. In a lot of ways, it is mirroring what we went through last year, where we didn't know what the public thought about most of the movies because they weren't in (theaters). So a lot of voters also were a bit apathetic and tuned out what was going on." 

But another virtual awards season isn't totally a bad thing: Last spring, Chloé Zhao's meditative, low-budget "Nomadland" took home three Oscars including best picture, director and actress (Frances McDormand). With bare-bones awards shows and no glitzy parties to charm potential voters, academy members couldn't be swayed by which film had the flashiest campaign, and instead sought out critics' picks. 

"I want all shows to be televised! We all do. Give me drunk celebrities saying dumb things, profound things and everything in between," says Erik Anderson, founder of prediction site AwardsWatch. That said, "as much as we might be missing out on some of the glamour that awards shows and festivals can provide, one thing I think the lack of in-person events and hobnobbing does is require voters to vote more with what they actually see vs. the ability to be influenced when meeting stars or peers. There is potential that more films will be seen than usual."

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